U.S. life expectancy inched up last year but in 2020 could decline by the largest amount since World War II, as Covid-19 becomes the nations third-leading cause of death.
Data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Tuesday showed that life expectancy rose to 78.8 years in 2019, an increase of one-tenth of a year, marking the second consecutive year of progress on the key measure of national well-being.
The main drivers were lower death rates from heart disease and cancer, the countrys no. 1 and no. 2 causes of death, respectively, said Robert Anderson, chief of the mortality-statistics branch of the CDCs National Center for Health Statistics. The death rate from drug overdoses rose after declining the prior year, while the suicide death rate fell for the first time since 2005.
Last years slim gain will be erased by a large drop in longevity when the government releases 2020 figures next year. Mr. Anderson said he performed a simple simulation based on mortality figures through August and found that life expectancy had declined by about 1½ years. For the full year, he expects that life expectancy could fall by two to three years.
Weve had a lot of deaths added since August, so I think a drop of two to three years for 2020 isnt out of the question, Mr. Anderson said. He said his figures are rough estimates and that the government needs complete data to measure the exact impact of the pandemic on U.S. mortality.