As it becomes apparent that the Level 5 lockdown is not yet working to the extent that public health officials and the Government had hoped, it doesnt take Mystic Meg to detect the emergence of discord in the policymaking camp as the deadline for reopening looms.
That is always a risk when a Plan A appears to stall and there is no clear Plan B.
The Irish Times political team reported on Thursday about clashes between Government officials and Tony Holohan, the chief medical officer, over the details of the plan to emerge from Level 5 restrictions at the start of next month.
If that divergence becomes a chasm that affects the clarity of decision-making, businesses in retail and hospitality will pay a price in the form of muddled advice. This is why Ibec, the employers lobby group, was so exercised this week in its letter to Ministers pleading for a decisive approach.
It would be more concerning, however, if there were no rows, as that would mean the States essential economic needs were not even being considered at the decision-making table. Any fair assessment also should take into account that such disagreements are being forged in the heat of the biggest public health battle Ireland has fought in more than 100 years. It should be a little fiery.
It is worth casting an eye back just over six weeks ago when the first signs of discord between the Government and the National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet), chaired by Holohan, emerged over Nphets initial attempt to bounce Ministers into a four-week Level 5 shutdown.
Tánaiste Leo Varadkar gave a now infamous television interview to RTÉ broadcaster Claire Byrne in which he eviscerated Holohans rationale, before relenting two weeks later and agreeing to a shutdown for six weeks.
Varadkar later justified his U-turn on the basis that daily infection rates had continued to accelerate, a reasonable rationale. Its also reasonable to suspect that he may have been partly motivated to change his mind by the knowledge that, if the virus had spun out of control, he would be forever remembered for that combative interview and blamed for any health disaster that followed.
