This I think will be a problem for six months, and then once the furlough scheme is wound down we will see enough labour supply to control wages in the sector, he adds.
Early data from Indeed one of the UKs top job websites suggests rises in hospitality pay are still pretty limited. Advertised rates on pay for food preparation and service jobs on the site stood at £9.40 at the start of June, up just 1.6pc from the January to mid-April median of £9.25.
At this point, we arent seeing much generalised upward pressure on average rates of pay advertised in job postings, says Pawel Adrjan, Indeeds head of research. This together with anecdotal reports of one-off bonuses suggests to me that many employers are not willing (or able) to raise advertised pay permanently just yet.
A new normal?
For now, it looks like fears Britain may be saddled with unaffordable pay rises could be overblown.
One of hospitalitys classic strengths has been access to a pool of cheap workers who can be quickly trained. The pandemic has put that to the test, but it may again prove a salvation.
For other sectors, the road ahead is less clear. Buchanan, from the RHA, warns that haulage companies will struggle to quickly replenish their workforce.