Ark Invest has a report on Bad Ideas for investing during the 2020s. Ark Invest manages invest ETFs of about $20 billion. ARKs Invest believes in Autonomous Technology and Robotics, Next Generation Internet, Genomic Revolution, Fintech Innovation, 3D Printing, Israel Innovative Technology, and the overall Disruptive Innovation.
Self-driving trucks will be cheaper per ton-mile than railroads. Railroad companies will get hit when cargo moves to self-driving trucks.
The old car companies will get hit badly with the shift to electric cars and self-driving cars.
Electric cars alone should reduce the global demand for oil by 10 million barrels per day from over 100 million barrels per day to about 90 million barrels per day by 2030. Self-driving electric robotaxis could make this three times worse for the oil industry. The global demand for oil could drop to about 70 million barrels of oil per day by 2030.
Oil companies will lose badly with the reduced demand for oil.
Traditional car insurance will start losing earlier as drivers under the age of 25 shift to ridesharing and then to robotaxis. The younger drivers paid the highest amounts for insurance.
About 10% of the households in the US have cut the cord to cable TV. Ark Invest expects cord-cutting to accelerate to half of the remaining households over the next 5 years.
The shift to e-commerce will accelerate. The coronavirus pandemic accelerated the adoption of e-commerce in the US from 11.3% of retail sales at the end of 2019 to 16.1% in the second quarter of 2020. ARK estimates that during the next few years drones will deliver packages for as little as 25 cents per trip, accelerating the shift in consumer shopping toward online purchases. Global e-commerce will quadruple from 16% in 2019 to 60% in 2030 as drones [and self-driving vehciles] add to convenience. Retail real estate values will suffer. ARK estimates that US e-commerce will grow from $820 billion in 2019 to $2.7 trillion in 2025, pushing non-e-commerce retail down from $4.6 trillion to $3.9 trillion, a level last seen in the late 90s.
The shift to e-wallets and digital banking will accelerate. Digital-only offerings such as Squares Cash App, PayPals Venmo, Chime, and other digital wallets will win and most traditional banks will have losses from the death of regular bank branches.
SOURCES- Ark InvestWritten By Brian Wang, Nextbigfuture.com