Bafana Bafana can move to within the brink of qualification for the 2021 Africa Cup of Nations (Afcon) tournament with a win at home over Group C leaders Ghana, before a tricky away clash against Sudan.
Molefi Ntseki’s side will host the Black Stars at FNB Stadium on Thursday in the first of back-to-back Afcon qualifiers, with a trip to Sudan in their final group clash.
The fate of Group C – Bafana Bafana are precariously positioned – is a long way from being decided, with any two of three teams still in contention to qualify for next year’s continental tournament.
Group leaders Ghana top the group, on nine points, thanks to a superior goal difference, and remain favourites to qualify.
Bafana Bafana are in second position, tied on nine points, ahead of Sudan in third, on six points, and Sao Tome in last, with zero points.
Ghana and Bafana Bafana hold the advantage over Sudan as the two teams most likely to qualify.
All three teams could still likely also end on the same number of points, with the group then being decided by a number of possible tie-breakers.
Teams are ranked according to points (three points for a win, one point for a draw). If tied on points, tie-breakers are applied in the following order:
1. Points in head-to-head matches among tied teams;2. Goal difference in head-to-head matches among tied teams;3. Goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;4. Away goals scored in head-to-head matches among tied teams;5. If more than two teams are tied, and after applying all head-to-head criteria above, a subset of teams are still tied, all head-to-head criteria above are reapplied exclusively to this subset of teams;6. Goal difference in all group matches;7. Goals scored in all group matches;8. Away goals scored in all group matches;9. Drawing of lots.
* The 12 group winners and runners-up qualify for the final tournament.
With Sudan facing minnows Sao Tome on Thursday – and likely to pick up three points – it means the clash against Ghana takes on greater importance for Bafana Bafana.
Crucially, and this could not be emphasised any more for the South Africans, is that points in head-to-head matches will be vital.
With the possibility of goal difference playing a factor, with Ghana currently boasting a goal difference of +4 to South Africa’s +3 and Sudan’s +2.
Infamously, Bafana Bafana under Pitso Mosimane failed to qualify for the 2012 Africa Cup of Nations when the team played for a 0-0 draw instead of a win against Sierra Leone.
Mistakenly not knowing the competition procedure required a better head-to-head record if teams were equal on points.
Permutations
Bafana Bafana
For Bafana Bafana, fans have, in the past, become accustomed to keeping their calculators close when navigating previous qualifying campaigns – and this one may prove no different.
Ntseki’s side could afford to lose to Ghana on Thursday, but then importantly would need to ensure that they are not defeated by Sudan.
The bare minimum for Bafana in their final two fixtures would be to ensure that they do not lose to Sudan, if it comes down to the last fixture in the group.
Bafana could virtually seal qualification to Cameroon with a home win over Ghana. Sudan would then need to win their last two games, while also ensuring that they do it with a superior goal difference.
Qualifying bare minimum: Avoid defeat to Sudan.
Ghana
For Ghana, they can afford to lose one of their last two fixtures as they possess a “joker” in their hand when hosting Sao Tome in their final fixture.
What makes their clash against the islanders a “joker card” is that one of South Africa and Sudan will drop points when the two face off in the alternate fixture.
Ghana could seal qualification with a win over Bafana Bafana on Thursday as they hold a superior head-to-head advantage over Sudan.
Qualifying bare minimum: Win one of two remaining matches.
Sudan
Sudan will need to win their last two fixtures and by greater than a 1-0 scoreline against Bafana Bafana to seal qualification.
The Sudanese face an uphill task as they would need results to go their way to have any hope of edging out one of Ghana and South Africa to Cameroon.
Qualifying bare minimum: Win two remaining matches plus a superior goal difference over South Africa.