It may be feasible to reduce Australias mandatory quarantine period to five days under certain circumstances, an expert says. Melbourne University epidemiologist Professor Tony Blakely told news.com.au that it wouldn’t be a good idea for all travellers but there were some situations where it could make sense.
The UK is expected to announce a five-day quarantine period on Monday (local time) amid concerns over its travel and airline industry.
The coronavirus has been devastating for Britain, which has recorded more deaths than any other European country including France and Spain. So far 54,000 people have died and there have been close to 1.5 million cases.
But businesses have also been hurting after a four-week lockdown was introduced in November to halt the spread of the virus.
This is set to be partially lifted on December 2 and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will release more details about the UK’s winter virus strategy on Monday.
Travellers are allowed to quarantine at home in the UK and the plan will allow them to leave quarantine if they have a negative coronavirus test on day five, rather than being forced to remain in isolation for 14 days, The Australian reports
Prof Blakely said five-day quarantine was a rational strategy for the UK.
“Given infection rates are higher in the UK, a lesser quarantine makes sense,” he said.
“You’ll probably weed out two-thirds of infections at the border so this will reduce them considerably.”
He said in places like the UK where background infection rates were already high, reducing traveller infection rates down to the same or less than the rest of the population, was not as difficult.
However, five-day quarantine wouldn’t bring rates down to zero, which is what the 14-day quarantine period is designed to do.
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This would make it a potentially dangerous policy for Australia to adopt but Prof Blakely believes it could be applied to certain low-risk countries.
“For us to allow travellers from the UK to quarantine for five days would be nuts because they have such a high rate it’s too risky,” he said.
“But if someone is coming from China as an international student to study in Melbourne, it makes perfect sense.”
He said China’s infection rates were 0.01 per cent of places like the UK and US and even if they were 10 times higher than what’s been reported, they would still be lower.
China is currently recording less than 100 cases a day in a country of 1.4 billion people.
Other countries like South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and the Pacific Islands also had very low rates of infection so a shorter quarantine period from these countries could also make sense.
Mr Blakely understands that the Federal Government has been focusing on getting Australians back into the country ahead of Christmas but is hoping the policy will change next year.
“Once we get past Christmas, I hope we there will be a more rational border control policy,” he said.
He acknowledged his conflict of interest as a professor of a university in wanting international students back in the country but he isn’t the only one keen to see students return.
NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian said she wants NSW to use a third of its hotel quarantine slots to bring in international students, skilled migrants and specialist workers, ideally starting in January.
Ms Berejiklian told The Sun-Herald the state was not able to increase its quarantine capacity above 3000 a week and called on other states to “lift their game”.
“We would like to start that as soon as we can in the new year but obviously that’s up to the federal government to let us do that,” she said.
She warned that universities would lose more staff if international students were not allowed to return.
Quarantine is seen as a big virus risk in Australia with the outbreak in Victoria linked to a failure in the state’s system and a recent outbreak in South Australia also linked to a medi hotel where returned travellers were staying.
Despite the risks, Prof Blakely doesn’t think states will end up moving their quarantine facilities into less populated areas, which is being suggested by some.
“The vaccine is getting closer and the cost effectiveness of shifting quarantine, as well as the transition risk probably means it won’t happen,” he said.
He said CBD hotels, where most people are quarantining, now appeared to have their systems working so there was a risk to disrupting this if the system had to be shifted to different facilities.
Prof Blakely believes that as long as security and other staff were being paid well enough so they didn’t have to take second jobs, it is a manageable situation.
charis.chang@news.com.au | @charischang2